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Will Bin Laden Strike Again?

From http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ --


We know bin Laden would like to influence the election, because he’s done it before. On October 29, 2004 – four days before America went to the polls – Al-Jazeera broadcast excerpts of a video of bin Laden in which he attacked and openly mocked the Bush administration, and vowed to strike again.


Bin Laden did not overtly support John Kerry, at one point saying, “Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe.” But most of his comments were directed at the sitting president, such as, “It never occurred to us that the Commander-in-Chief of the country would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone because he thought listening to a child discussing her goats was more important.”


The predominant reaction, then, was to assume that bin Laden was rooting for a Kerry victory. Not surprisingly, following the release of his video, the needle moved a point or two – towards Bush. Voters certainly had every reason to give bin Laden the ink-stained finger, and bin Laden’s re-appearance on their TV screens was a not-so-subtle reminder of Bush’s most reassuring trait as president: his uncompromising stance towards terrorism (notwithstanding his ineptitude at implementing a strategy to combat it).


Bush won the popular vote by 2.5%, and won Ohio – whose electoral votes would have given Kerry the presidency – by only 2.1%. Correlation is not causation, but it is at least arguable that the release of the bin Laden video altered the outcome of the election. Presented with a video in which the embodiment of evil and our sworn enemy openly mocked our leader, Americans did what we did after 9/11: we closed ranks around that leader, and voted him to a second term.


Which is exactly what bin Laden wanted.



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Comments

( 6 comments — Leave a comment )
solestria
Oct. 11th, 2008 01:14 pm (UTC)
I'm fairly convinced Bin Laden is dead. Why does no one seem to entertain that possibility?
bzero
Oct. 11th, 2008 06:47 pm (UTC)
Well, that would be nice, but since it keeps popping up like a roach, it's better to assume and prepare otherwise, just in case.
polyanarch
Oct. 11th, 2008 04:48 pm (UTC)
Screw Bin Laden
I'm more worried that the kid who's been breaking into cars and garages in my neighborhood will strike again.

The cops don't really seem to give a flying flock. Dust for fingerprints? Keep a lookout at the time he strikes? They don't give a crap. Hell, it's like you have disturbed their donut break just to get them to come and talk to you or fill out a report.

I'm not worried about Bin Laden. He really doesn't effect me in the real world. I've got a bigger chance of getting hit by lightening than Bin Laden hurting me any other way than causing my own Henny-Penny government take all my Freedoms away from me over-reacting to him.

So I guess Bin Laden wins!
bzero
Oct. 11th, 2008 06:44 pm (UTC)
Re: Screw Bin Laden
Yep. (That reminds me of when my apartment got broken into. The theives hung out in my apartment while I was gone, drinking and smoking, and I saved cigarette butts and fingerprinty beer bottles for them. They didn't even pretend like they were going to follow up.)

Yeah. Bin Laden isn't a direct threat to 99.99% of Americans in the US, but the indirect damage he does thru sheer herd mentality is frightening and sad.
gidster
Oct. 13th, 2008 04:57 am (UTC)
We don't know that Bush won the popular vote.
In Ohio, almost three thousand people were in line to vote when the polls closed, yet Ohio managed to vote 650 more people than were registered in the state.......Hmmmm Diebold voting machines, when you care enough to send the cheapest crap!
bzero
Oct. 13th, 2008 12:31 pm (UTC)
Very true. I guess the point is more that these things push opinion close enough that dirty tricks like this will work, and people will be too busy running scared to pay attention to little trivialities like blatant vote theft.
( 6 comments — Leave a comment )

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